Energy Security in an Insecure World

The New Electrotech Strategy

Please find attached our latest report from Ember on energy security. In a nutshell – the more chaos Trump unleashes, the more people will want their own energy resources. For most places this means renewables and electrification.

Rising fossil import dependence. Since 1960, fossil fuel imports have grown twelvefold, now supplying over one-third of all primary energy as of 2022. Today, three-quarters of the global population live in net fossil-importing nations. This includes all of Greater China, South Asia, and Northeast Asia; 99% of Europeans; two-thirds of Africans; and nearly half the populations of Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Some nations are especially exposed. In 52 countries, fossil fuel imports account for more than half of primary energy use. In economies representing 20% of global GDP— including Germany, Japan, and Italy—imports supply over two-thirds of total energy demand.

Global trade is under threat. The decline of the Pax Americana, rising regional conflicts, increasingly contested maritime routes, and intensifying tariff wars have placed global trade under greater threat than at any time since World War II.

From dependency to vulnerability. What was once seen as efficient interdependence has become a national security liability. If energy imports were cut off, three-quarters of the world’s economies would grind to a halt—trucks would stop, factories would shut down, and lights would go dark.

The new security strategy: electrotech. Prudent nations are pursuing a two-pronged strategy: shifting energy supply to local renewables and directing energy use toward domestically generated electricity. With renewable potential 120 times greater than fossil fuels—and available everywhere—energy independence is within reach for every nation.

Electrotech can slash imports and minimise security risks. Three key levers—electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewables—can cut net fossil fuel imports by 70%, saving importers $1.3 trillion per annum globally. The largest gain comes from EVs replacing oil in road transport (one-third). Scaling solar and wind to displace fossil fuels in power generation can save another 23%, while heat pumps replacing imported fossil fuels for buildings adds a further 14%.

Electrification is the largest driver of energy independence. Over three-quarters of global fossil fuel imports are for end use sectors, such as oil for transport and gas for heating. Electrification can eliminate the need for such imports.

China has a strategic lead. China is rapidly deploying electrotech, curbing its fuel imports, while gaining industrial and military advantages over the West. As the US restricts Chinese electrotech imports, China is extending its influence by deploying these technologies throughout the Global South.

New dependencies are not comparable to old. Unlike fossil fuels—which must be imported and burnt continuously—electro technologies require a single import to achieve secure energy for 30 years. Even diversified fossil imports will always be less dependable than the sun rising.

Act before the lights go out. Countries must act swiftly to localise electricity generation, electrify end uses, and enhance efficiency. That requires doubling down especially on electrification, and avoiding increased reliance on fossil fuel imports in growing economies.